A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
